Bitcoin's price momentum has stalled as large holders and long-term investors accelerate profit-taking, creating a supply overhang that analysts warn could pressure the market for months. The original cryptocurrency dipped below the psychologically significant $100,000 mark in early November 2025, falling more than 20% from its record high reached a month earlier, according to The Hindu BusinessLine. Earlier in June, Bitcoin had already shown signs of fatigue when it briefly slipped under $105,000 after holding above six figures for a historic 27-day stretch, as reported by LiveMint. In both episodes, the selling pressure originated not from leveraged futures liquidations but from spot-market distribution by entities that have held Bitcoin for years.
Whales and long-term holders drive the sell-off
On-chain data reveals a sustained reduction in Bitcoin held by the largest addresses. Analyst Willy Woo noted on X that "big whales" with over 10,000 Bitcoin have been selling since 2017, with most of these coins originally acquired at prices near "$0 and $700 and held for 8 to 16 years," according to LiveMint. A chart cited by Cointelegraph shows whale holdings declining steadily from 2.77 The Hindu BusinessLine. Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, added that over 319,000 Bitcoin had been "reactivated" in the past month, primarily from coins held for six to 12 months, indicating significant profit-taking since mid-July. While some reactivation reflects internal transfers, Lunde said much of it represents real selling.
How this differs from previous crashes
Unlike the October 2025 crash, which was driven by cascading futures liquidations totaling $19 billion in forced unwindings, the current slide is characterized by steady spot-market selling. According to CoinGlass data cited by The Hindu BusinessLine, only about $2 billion in crypto positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours — modest by comparison. Open interest in Bitcoin futures remains subdued, and options traders have been placing downside bets through put contracts targeting the $80,000 level.
This shift from leverage-driven volatility to fundamental distribution marks a structural change. Thielen observed that "mega whales" — entities holding between 1,000 and 10,000 Bitcoin — began offloading large volumes earlier in the year, even as institutional players attempted to absorb the supply. That dynamic explained Bitcoin's choppy, sideways movement during the summer. However, since the October 10 crash, broader demand has faded. "We broke through some on-chain indicators — people are underwater, they need to close their positions," Thielen said.
Demand side weakening as accumulation drops
The supply overhang is compounded by a sharp decline in buying interest from mid-sized holders. Accumulation by parties holding between 100 and 1,000 Bitcoin has dropped sharply, with Thielen stating bluntly: "The whales are just not buying." This imbalance between persistent selling by long-term holders and diminishing new demand is beginning to shape market direction rather than merely reflecting sentiment.
In June, when Bitcoin traded above $100,000 for a record 27 days (25 consecutive days per CoinSwitch data), Edul Patel, co-founder and CEO of Mudrex, noted that the cryptocurrency must hold above $106,000 to maintain bullish momentum, or else a short-term pullback toward $103,200 remained possible before buyers stepped in again, according to LiveMint. That level proved unsustainable as the distribution trend accelerated into the fourth quarter.
What happens next: a prolonged unwind?
Thielen warns the current unwind could extend well into spring 2026. Drawing a parallel to the 2021–2022 bear market, when more than one million Bitcoin were sold by large holders over nearly a year, he believes a similar scale may repeat. "If this is a similar pace, we could see this situation going on for another six months," he said, as reported by The Hindu BusinessLine.
While not forecasting a catastrophic plunge, Thielen sees room for further declines. "I am not a believer in the cycle, but I would assume that we sort of consolidate and potentially drift even a bit lower from here. $85,000 is my maximum downside target," he added. This outlook suggests a grinding, demand-starved environment rather than a sharp crash — a scenario where conviction erodes gradually as early adopters continue to exit positions accumulated over more than a decade.
What it means for investors
The current market structure indicates that Bitcoin's price action is increasingly driven by fundamental supply-demand dynamics rather than speculative leverage. With long-term holders distributing coins acquired at a fraction of current prices, and mid-sized accumulators stepping back, the path of least resistance remains tilted to the downside unless new buyer cohorts emerge. Investors should monitor on-chain metrics for signs of whale accumulation resuming or stabilization in the 100–1,000 Bitcoin holder segment, which historically precedes sustained recoveries. Until then, the $85,000–$100,000 range may define the trading environment for the coming quarters.